Monday, December 3, 2012

One Party Dies, Another Will Rise

Republicans are a dying breed. They've just watched their last great hope of reclaiming the White House go up in smoke. Their two strongest demographics - old people and white men - are shrinking. One is simply dying off, while the other is becoming a smaller and smaller piece of the overall pie. Meanwhile, the strongest growing demographics all belong to the Democrats: Hispanics, Atheists, and the youth vote.

Atheists are the fastest growing "religious" demographic in America. At approximately 15%, we already outnumber Jews, Muslims, and basically anybody who's not Christian. And our numbers are growing faster than anybody else's

Hispanics typically vote Democrat, and they're the fastest growing ethnic minority. In fact, just about every minority votes Democrat: Hispanics, blacks, LGBT, women, etc.. Why is this? Social issues. People have all sorts of ideas about what they want the economy to do and how they want the government involved with it (or not), and those can go all over the political spectrum. But for a lot of people, their big social issues are non-negotiable, and the Democrats are the ones not stuck in the stone age, so they get the votes.

All this aside, the single #1 reason why the Republicans will never win the White House again: the youth vote. Young people tend to be more liberal by nature, and they also tend to put more emphasis on social issues than economic ones. We've already established that the Democrats are the socially liberal option, so they get the youth vote. Since statistically speaking people tend to continue voting however they did in their first election, this means that Democrats will keep getting more and more votes as more new voters come of age, and Republicans will get fewer and fewer as their established base grows old and dies off.

We've already seen the pattern. States that used to be swing states (like Michigan and Pennsylvania) are now solidly blue. Former solid red states like Virginia and North Carolina are now swing. And with Puerto Rico in line to become a state (that will undoubtedly go blue), the Republicans are all but dead already.

The Libertarians are the future. There is a party that offers what fiscal conservatives want while allowing for the personal and social liberties that the Republicans oppose. They will take their place as America's second major party while the Republicans go the way of the Whigs, gradually fading into obscurity and irrelevance as the Democrats, who can trace their roots to the time Andrew Jackson and even some of the founders themselves, lumber on. Why? Because they know how to do something that the Republicans, and the Whigs before them, and the Federalists before them, never figured out: they can change with the times.

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